Qatar närmar sig Ryssland, liksom Japan

Positionerna är inte helt låsta i Mellanöstern. Qatar närmar sig Ryssland, och Japan uttalar sig positivt om Ryssland. Rysslands tydliga stöd för kurderna och konflikten med Turkiet behandlas i annan blogginlägg.

I början av veckan anlände Qatars emir Tamim bin Hamad Thani i Moskva för samtal med president Vladimir Putin. Och medan de två män utbytte vänliga ord där Hamad betonade Rysslands ”avgörande roll för den globala stabiliteten”, funderade analytiker över den verkliga anledningen till besöket.
Qatar och Putin II
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* Gevorg Mirzayan, special correspondent for the respected Russian business magazine Expert, suggested that what the Qatari emir may be after is a diplomatic solution which would offer his country something akin to peace with honor in Syria – in other words, an honorable surrender.

* ”The position of the Qatari leader, it might seem, was somewhat strange. From the start of the Russian air campaign in Syria, Qatari officials stepped out loudly and often, saying that the Kremlin was carrying out the wrong policy. The Qatari-owned television network Al-Jazeera claimed that Russia was not fighting a war against terrorism, but on the side of a ’bloodthirsty dictator’.”

* ”However, in Moscow, the emir expressed a different opinion.” ”We are counting on our friends in Russia to play a large role in resolving the catastrophic situation which has befallen the Syrian people, with this tragedy, and to reach a political settlement,”
Tamim noted.

”Qatar has indeed supported a political settlement from the first day. In addition, we support all organizations and international initiatives aimed at finding a political solution, provided that it shall be satisfactory to all parties,” Tamim added.

For his part, the journalist Mirzayan believes that >”The emir is simply adapting, and it’s no secret that Qatar is now in a very difficult situation.” This, is the result of Qatar’s regional conflict with Saudi Arabia. ”After former emir plans to seize the leadership of the Middle East collapsed [in 2013], he was forced to resign, and it fell upon his son, Tamim, to improve relations with Doha’s neighbors, who had long sought to put the emirate in its place.”

The new government’s ”plans did not succeed. Less than 10 days after Tamim’s accession to the throne, the Egyptian military, in an unholy alliance with the Saudi monarchy, toppled the Muslim Brotherhood regime in Egypt, in whom the Qataris had invested a great deal of effort and resources. The new emir found himself isolated, and was forced to maneuver desperately to salvage the emirate’s influence in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia and its allies presented Doha with an ultimatum looking to deny Qatar any influence in the region.”
Putin och Qatar III
”However,”in the summer of 2015, the pressure suddenly stopped. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and its allies allowed Qatar to retain its influence in exchange for support for the anti-Assad resistance in Syria.” ”Factually, Doha went all in on Syria. For a time, it appeared that the gamble was working – Daesh successfully attacked government troops, expanding their zone of control even in Latakia, the stronghold of Syrian President Bashar Assad.

Then, suddenly, Russia joined the war, and the balance of power in the region changed dramatically.
Subsequently, according to Mirzayan, Tamim’s visit to Moscow is connected to a search for options on how Qatar might extricate itself from the Syrian conflict.

In any case, ”it cannot be excluded that the emir’s apparent willingness to take a constructive stance on Syria has one long-term goal: to achieve a rapprochement with Iran. Following a normalization of relations with Iran, Qatar would be able to cool the Saudis’ ardor, and get them to stop the dangerous pressure on Qatar which threatens to push the emirate to the ’other side’.”

”Of course,” Mirzayan says, ”this does not mean that the emir’s visit to Moscow resulted in some agreement. But the very fact that Qatar has begun a dialogue on changing its position serves as an important signal to all participants of this ’game’, which covers not just Syria, but the Middle East as a whole.”

Förutom viktiga framgångar för alliansen Ryssland-Syrien mot ISIS och terrorismen noteras oväntat nytt stöd för Ryssland och Putin från Japan. President Abe som är blivande värd för möte i G7 som Ryssland uteslutits från av väst (kallades tidigare för G8) säger nu att Rysslands röst behövs för att lösa krisen i Mellersta Östern och att han gärna far till Moskva eller tar emot Putin i Tokyo för att diskutera gemensamma angelägenheter. Detta trots en 70 år gammal olöst konflikt med Ryssland sedan kriget om 4 öar.

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Ett svar till “Qatar närmar sig Ryssland, liksom Japan”

  1. Ryssarna är flitiga diplomater och har pratat med i princip alla i Asien vid detta laget. Qatar var typ sista nation till Moskva. Hade inte dragit för stora växlar på det.